IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LIVELIHOOD AND ITS ADAPTATION NEEDS
S. B. THAKUR1 and A.
BAJAGAIN2
Shree Bhagavan Thakur e-mail: shreebhagavanthakur@gmail.com; and Akash Bajagain e-mail: bajagainakash@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Climate change impact
has been experienced in different sectors: agriculture, forestry and
biodiversity, water resources and energy. People and their community will
experience significant climatic change impacts on food supply and security,
water availability, infrastructure and agriculture income.
The five assets i.e. Human, Social, Natural, Physical, and Economic assets of sustainable
livelihood are threatened by the effect of climate change and the future predictions
are much ominous. Though, many plans, policies and strategies have been
prepared and implemented, those are inadequate at present context. Appropriate
adaptation through research, policy arrangement, capacity building and long and
medium-term planning is the need of the time. This paper is intended to
highlight the impacts of climate change on livelihood and need of climate
change adaptation for sustainable livelihood of vulnerable community.
KEY WORDS: Adaptation, Agriculture, Climate change, Impacts, and
Livelihood
INTRODUCTION
Climate change is a
global issue alarmed since 19th century by the scientists and its
impacts are clearly discernable at today's date. Regional Circulation Models
(RCM) project the mean annual temperature to increase by 1.4⁰C by 2030, 2.8⁰C by 2060 and 4.7⁰C by 2090 (NCVST, 2009)
Climate change impact
has been experienced in different sectors of Nepal including agriculture,
forestry and biodiversity, water resources and energy. Climate change is
commonly recognized to have major implications for food security and
livelihoods (Thompson & Scoone, 2009) . Nepal ranks
seventeenth among climate vulnerable countries (Maplecroft, 2014) . The marginal nature of farming, low
income level, limited institutional capacity and reliance on climate-sensitive
natural resources has increased the degree of vulnerability.
The two-third of the
population is still practicing agriculture as main occupation to sustain
livelihood (CBS, 2008) , and the
expatriation of 4.5 lakh individual yearly is a pressing challenge regarding
Climate Change Adaptation; as impact resilience and adaptation have to be
relied mostly upon women, children and senior citizens.
Table
1: Some Livelihood Indices of Nepal
|
Indicators
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
|
Food
deficit (kilocalories per person per day)
|
50
|
49
|
51
|
NA
|
|
Unemployment
Rate (% of total labor force, modeled ILO estimate)
|
3
|
3.10
|
3.06
|
2.74
|
|
Energy
use (Quintal of oil equivalent per capita)
|
3.870
|
3.650
|
4.010
|
4.140
|
|
GDP
per capita, PPP (Current International Dollar 1000)
|
2.39
|
2.46
|
2.48
|
2.68
|
(World Bank 2018)
A good adaptation
measures against Climate Change encompassing all the components of livelihood
is thus a need of time. In order to address
it, Nepal has prepared and is implementing NAPA, LAPA, Climate Change Policy,
including other policies, programmes and activities to address climate change
impacts (MoPE, 2017) .
The adaptation measures may include changes in practices and technologies,
diversification of livelihood systems, accessing financial resources such as
micro-insurance and micro-credit, migration, reconfiguring labor or resource
allocation and collective action to access services, resources or markets (NCVST, 2009) . Among the four
UNDAF priority areas, Resilience, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate
Change Adaptation is one. It is in alignment with National Development Priority
i.e. Fourteenth Plan, Strategy 3: Sustainable improvement on human development
through social development & social security/ protection (UNDAF, 2013)
This paper is focused
to provide integrated concept on how the people's livelihoods of Nepal is
affected by Climate Change and attempts to forwards the needs of adaptation
measures.
Methodology
This study is based on
rigorous review of climate change impacts on livelihoods of the vulnerable
community and related pertinent documents that were brought forth in Nepal. It
included but not limited to climate change convention related documents, national
policies and strategies including plans and programmes, legal documents,
published reports, journal articles, literatures and research papers. The
information was drawn from national and international sources and they were
critically scanned, skimmed, reviewed, shorted and analyzed for this study.
This study was done from September 2018 to December 2018.
Results and Discussions
As Nepal is heading for
the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2030, challenges are
piling one upon another. Global warming and climate change are the greatest
concerns since they affect human beings and the whole ecosystem. Agriculture,
livelihood, sustainable management of natural resources and food security are
inextricably linked within the development and climate change challenges of the
twenty-first century (FAO, 2012) .
Nepal is known for its
diverse physiography within rugged terrain and mountains and diversity in
socio-culture as well. It is annually dominated by the Asian monsoon and
poverty is a widespread problem (Shresthal & Aryal, 2011) .Due to this, Climate
change will not only amplify the existing risks that the nature and humans
already are influenced by but also keep creating new risks for all systems (IPCC, 2014) .
Relationship
and Impacts of Climate Change on Livelihood
Livelihood
have ties with climate change on all the assets (Human capital, Social capital,
Natural capital, Physical capital and Financial capital) and adaptation
includes the activities like reducing poverty, improving access to
resources, lowering inequities of resources and wealth, improving education,
improving infrastructure, improving institutional capacity and
efficiency and promoting local indigenous knowledge (Smit, et al.,
2001) .
Most
of the people in Nepal live in rural areas and it is evident that rural people
and their community will experience significant climatic impact on food supply
and security, water availability, infrastructure and agriculture income (IPCC, 2014) . Poverty and
inequality are relevant elements on discussion since Climate Change creates
risks that, altogether, results in prolonged poverty and pervasive inequality
in the society (Stampe, 2017) .By understanding the
dynamics of poor people’s livelihoods, we can understand how they will be
affected by climate change impacts, how they might respond with the resources
they have, and how these conditions can be reflected and built upon for
successful adaptation strategies (IUCN, 2004) .
The
DFID (British Department for International Development) has developed a
‘Sustainable Livelihood Framework’ which is one of the most widely used tools
to understand and act upon components of livelihood. Sustainable livelihood
framework-based indicators are here used to assess relationship of climate
change and livelihood asset.
Fig
1: Sustainable livelihood framework (DFID 2000)
a) Human
asset:
Food availability and quality of
available food determines the nutritional status on human population: as long
as nutritional sufficiency is not secured the well functional body and mind is
undermined.
Damage to human assets as a result of
weather events and climate, such as food insecurity, undernourishment, and
chronic hunger due to failed crops or rise in food prices is felt mostly on
poor urban population (IPCC, 2014) .Likewise, about four
thousand people were decimated in last ten years in Nepal due to Climate
induced disasters with economic loss of US$ 5.34B (MoHA, 2013) . The institutions
like School, Office, Service centers etc. are directly hampered by the climate
induced impacts and disasters like hurricane, erratic rainfall, water level
increase in the river, cold wave shocks and scorching heat. Human education,
health, access to service and function on markets etc. are hence compromised.
Climate change is believed to have
different effects on women and men; in some
Cases, it leaves women more vulnerable
and disadvantaged than men, and vice versa (Mainlay & Tan , 2012) . Drought and
dropping of water table can be associated with the long and short term impact
of Climate Change. People
expressed concerns over the drying up of sources of drinking water in the
existing spring and the burden of bringing water from the new source (Lama, 2010) . Unavailability
of water supply has exacerbated poor menstrual hygiene among adolescent girls (Karki, 2017) . Also the water
scarcity hits hard on female's routine as they have to manage the household and
kitchen, compromising their productive time on education and welfare.
In Nepal rural people in Terai perceives
that the incidences of typhoid, fever, diarrhea, hypertension, knee problem,
asthma, skin disease, stomach disease, gastric have tremendously increased
(FIAN, 2013). There is a potential
impact of climate change on health on the outbreak of diseases like Malaria,
kalazar and Japanese Encephalitis diseases (MoE, 2010) It is estimated that for
regions where dengue is already present, a mean temperature increase of about 1°C,
increases the aggregate epidemic risk by an average of 31 to 47 percent (NRC,
2001) .
On top of that, marginalized people have less access to combat against such
disease thus getting vulnerable and act as a probable reservoir. There
is an increased risk of breaking epidemics on unmanaged urban wastes and
increase in the local temperature has further facilitated the pathogen to
nurture and spread.
Thus, the
amount and quality of knowledge and labor available in a household and eventually
in a country is undermined.
b) Social
asset
The impact of climate change
has multi- equity dimensions on social aspect but there is very less
information about the impact of climate change on different sections of
society.
There may be losses of social identity and cultural
connections with land and sea among indigenous populations threatened by water
level rise and potential relocation and conflicts between ethnic and/or
religious groups (IPCC, 2014) .
Social assets like community
forest users group committee, schools development committee, temples, youth
clubs, and cooperatives are affected by various events due to which they have
to change their regular settings, postpone the meetings, sometime make conflict
due to resource and workload for forest management, fire control and clearance
for invasive species (Shrestha & Gautam, 2014) .
Natural events like cold waves,
prolonged rain or heat waves can isolate people from social functions. And similarly
Climate Change events have negative effect on products and services which could
induce food deficit, price rise, shortages, discriminative distribution etc. and can threaten the
social harmony among people. Climate changes has been reported for increased
forced migration of marginal groups in hills and mountain area of western Nepal
and thus are exposed to new socio-cultural area.
c) Natural asset
Livelihood Forestry Programme, 2009 has shown that
climate change has greater impacts on agricultural land, forest and water,
which are basic source of livelihoods for the people. Scarcity of natural
resources by Climate change increases resource based conflict (Evans, 2009) .
LAND
As per the FAO data, in developing country like
Nepal, 11 percent of cultivable land would be affected, which include reduction
of cereal crop production and about 16 percent decline in GDP. Similarly, up to
83% of the overall economic impact of drought, which Climate Change is expected
to intensify, falls on agricultural land (FAO, 2017) . The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that declining crop
yields may already be a fact, and that decreases of 10–25 percent may be
widespread by 2050 (FAO, 2017)
Climate Change leads to an increase in arid lands due to increased
water stresses particularly in developing countries where irrigation facilities
are poor. In
2007, due to rain deficit 10% of the agricultural land were left fallow, and in
the same year mid-western terai faced heavy rainfall with flood in contrast (Regmi H. R.,
2007) .
This type of event can be well attributed to impacts of Climate change.
It is reported
that the physical and chemical properties of soil have been changed due to
prolonged drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns
that declining crop yields may already been a fact, and that decreases of
10-25 percent may be widespread by 2050 (FAO, 2017) . In Nepal, Floods
carrying rocks, sediments and debris increase the intensity of
landslides and erosion; deteriorate soil and water quality; wash away houses and properties; cause human
injuries and deaths; destroy infrastructure such as schools, roads, and markets (Aryal &
Chaudhari, 2009)
FOREST
Climate Change
directly and indirectly affects the growth and productivity of forest by change
in temperature, rainfall, weather and other factors. While other Climate change induced problems like insect outbreak,
defoliation, drought and wild fire are adding the menace.
In Nepal extreme climatic conditions have led to
increased incidence of fire in recent years affecting more than 50,000 people
and loss of large areas of productive forest land (MoE, 2010) .
A livelihood of forest based populations is
seriously challenged due to climate change resulting in loss of lands and land
productivity. There is reported change in amount of forest cover, due to
previous clearing and poor regeneration as a result of Climate change. Forest
biodiversity degradation have set forth problems like lack of available forest
resources and it is observed to be exacerbated by climate change impact;
manifested on foraging animal health and flock size (Kaushik &
Sharma, 2015) .
Thus, livelihood of forest based population is seriously thwarted.
WATER
Today’s population is facing major impacts on
availability of water due to Climate Change, as there is continious water table
decline. Increasing demand for water by industry and urban areas will further
reduce water available for agriculture. In this situation, the poor are often
vulnerable to the effects of unsustainable water use and to the extensive
corruption associated with water use and irrigation (Conway, 1997) .
Scientists from the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have
claimed that there is increasing probability for more intense droughts and precipitation events. With higher average temperatures and warmer air that
can hold more water, a pattern might emerge of lengthy dry spells interspersed
with brief but heavy precipitation and possible flooding. Likewise, rising
temperatures lead to increased evaporation rates and plant transpiration, which
results in water loss in soil and plants.
Increased flow
of water in rivers of catchment area and flood is evident due to intense
rainfall (erratic rainfall). Drying of pond in drought and decrease in surface
water has caused inaccessibility of drinking water to human and livestock.
People shared that the ground water level has gone deep down, and they have to
dig further down to get water through well and pump. In general, during winter
the water is available at 65-150 ft. while in rainy season it is available at
25-26 ft. in Terai (MoPE, 2017) .
It is thus
evident, climate change would much impact on water and, consequently in the
livelihood much harsher in coming years.
Physical asset:
The physical assets like buildings, roads,
communication towers, water tank, dam, reservoir etc. are prone to suffer from
disaster like flood, landslide, hailstones, snowfall, hurricane etc. Climate
Change is associated with such hazardous Physical events which not only
destroys physical assets, but in fact disrupts further services from them.
Damage in the major highways, connecting roads, terminals, bridges as well as
water routes can halt the supply of food, sanitation, petroleum etc. These
events interact with social condition, leading to widespread adverse human,
material, economic or environmental effect.
Likewise, school and colleges are also vulnerable to
Climatic events in Nepal (MoPE, 2017) . And Climate Change
has exacerbated the case: erratic rainfall and snowfall have caused serious
damage to these institutions hampering the education of the students.
Economic
asset:
The
economy of Nepal is not much diversified and 21.6 percent of population lives
below poverty line (NPC,UNDP, 2014) . Agriculture and
remittance are two pillars of economy in Nepal. Rain-fed agriculture is the
dominant method used by farmers at the subsistence level, with few mechanical
inputs to enhance production, and with low monetary income. Likewise, majority
of the active population contributing to economy are forced to expatriate for
foreign labor. As such, climate change can induce erosion of financial asset as
the result of increased food price.
The working hours in agricultural work has been
reduced due to Climate Change (FIAN, 2013) . Due to Climate
Sensitivity, labors like in Agriculture extreme events thus working hours are
compromised, causing economic impact (Bishowokarma & Sharma, 2013) . Similarly, due to
late rainfall and drought, poor people perceive that there is scarcity of wage
labor. Prediction is that net revenue from livestock for large farms will go
down by 22 percent due to climate change. By the 2050s, net agricultural losses
in Nepal are estimated to be the equivalent per year of around 0.8% of current
GDP, or US$140 million/year in current prices (MoSTE, 2013) .
Tourism is one of the important aspects of economy.
The unfavorable weather change phenomenon causes unpleasant situation for
trekkers and mountaineers (K.C, 2017) . Similarly, increase
in local temperature declines the flow of recreational tourist in low lands and
terai region. Thus, Climate change brings more risks than opportunity by
causing regional and seasonal shift in tourist flow, which could cripple the national
economy.
By 2050, demands for electricity increases by
additional 2,800 MW with increased sector investment cost by US$ 2.6 B (MoSTE, 2013) . It is due to
over-consumption of the energy to cope with the extremes of heat & cold,
operating machines at adverse climatic conditions, pump water through boring
etc. Also the direct annual economic costs of Climate Change on water induced
disasters is estimated to be about 0.6-1.1% of current GDP per year in current
prices (MoSTE, 2013)
Realizing
the Adaptation needs in Plans, Policies and Strategies
In Nepal, poverty
reduction and socio-economic improvement issue has been prioritized since 1996 (MoSTE, 2016) . The fifth five year
plan (1975-1980) has also prioritized uplifting of livelihood. Likewise, the
sixth periodic plan (1980-1985) also adopted basic need approach to reduce
poverty and enhance livelihood. Coming up to the thirteen plans (2013-2016),
much emphasis have been given to bring marginalized people in the same level
and reduce inequality.
Agriculture Prospective
Plan (APP), a 20 year plan, with aim to increase food production and reduce
poverty of marginal farmer, upon completion brought positive changes on livelihood (NPC, 1995) . With the primary
goal of attaining food security and improving livelihoods by transforming
subsistence agriculture into a commercialized and competitive system, National
Agriculture Policy (NAP) 2004, is the official policy framework for all
interventions in the sector (Synthesis of NAP stocktaking report, 2017)
Nepal prepared its
National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) in September 2010, which
prioritize livelihood along with others in account of Climate Change.
Similarly, to promote Climate Adaptation and Mitigation in response to
international Climate regime, Nepal prepared Climate Change Policy in 2001 (MoE, 2010) . It includes
Mitigation and Adaptation of the adverse impacts of Climate Change, Adaptation
of low Carbon emissions and Socio-economic development as well as supporting
and collaborating national and international agreements.
Likewise, Climate Resilient Planning Tool, a
program and project screening tool for long term climate change adaptation, was
endorsed in 2011 (MoSTE, 2016) . It oversees
livelihood sustainability and emphasizes the need to adopt a mechanism to
screen development plans and make them climate resilient. On the same year,
Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA) was also endorsed. It is a bottom up,
inclusive, responsive and flexible framework which ensures process of
integrating climate adaptation and resilience into local and national level.
However, existing
policies and sectorial plan seems inadequate to address the climate change
impacts. Coping and Adaptation is mostly done on ad hoc basis which is not well
prepared and well organized in Nepal (Regmi, B R; Bhandari, D, 2013) . The APP (1997-2017),
national strategy for Disaster risk management (2007-2015), national water
resources strategy (WRS) 2002 and the National Water Plan (NWP) 2005 have not
taken 'Climate Change and Livelihood' into much consideration. Government needs
to design and implement effective plans and strategies based on National and
Local Climate Policies to adapt climate change impacts to achieve economic and
social prosperity (Dixit, 2015) . Thus, there lies
immense room for endorsing climate change adaptation in national plans,
policies and strategies for sustainable livelihood.
Conclusion
Climate Change effects
are inevitable and the livelihood sector is downtrodden by its effect. The
entire five assets i.e. Human, Social, Natural, Physical, and Economic assets
of livelihood are threatened by the effect of Climate Change and the future
predictions are much ominous. It is imperative to identify approaches that
strengthen effort to adapt the effect to Climate Change and also prepare for
mitigation in the future. Though, many plans, policies and strategies have been
prepared and implemented, those seem inadequate at present context. Appropriate
adaptation through Research, Policy arrangement, Capacity building and long and
medium-term planning is thus further needed.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We would like to express our sincere appreciation to the Ministry of
Agriculture and Livestock Development, FAO of United Nations, climate change
adaptation in agriculture sector project for giving us the opportunity to use
information. We thank Dr. Krishna Prasad Pant, National Technical Coordinator
of FAO, CCA project for his kind support and cooperation. I also thank to FAO,
CCA project team for coordinating livelihood support activities.
References
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