Study on economic analysis of the
impacts of drought on displacement in Panchthar district of Nepal.
S. B. Thakur* ; M.
Upadhyaya**
*
Consultant of UNDP Nepal; Email: sbthakur500@rediffmail.com
** Poverty
and Environment Initiative, NPC/UNDP Nepal Email: madhukaru@gmail.com
Abstract
In Nepal,
water is often associated with disaster of landslides and floods destroy farms,
even entire village, displacing hundreds of people from their place of origin.
In recent times, districts of Nepal have shown signs of vulnerability to
environmental stress, particularly drought related stress. The spring of the
hill's local water sources are drying up rapidly, while in the Terai ground
water is depleting. In order to assess the economic impact of the drought, a
study was conducted using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods
in three drought stricken VDCs: Yashok, Syabrumba and Ranigaun in Panchthar district
of Nepal. Altogether, 6 settlements of 3 VDCs were purposively selected and information
was collected using Focused Group Discussions (FGD) and Key Informants'
Interviews. Yearly, around 20-25 HHs of 3 VDCs have been displacing and
settling to terrain where water is available.
One third of cultivated land has become barren, area under maize and its production
has declined by about 50% and paddy
cultivation has ceased. Land buying and selling stopped
and price of land thus has dropped too. Single HH have to spend NRs. 2,100 in
buying rice in a month and this cost NRs 25, 200, annually. Annual loss and
expenditure incurred NRs 1, 2700 per family to 2179 HH of 3 VDCs including
expences in medicine of human being and livestock, food cost, education cost,
losses in production of agriculture crops and livestock products.
Key words: drought, water scarcity, economic analysis,
displacement
1
INTRODUCTION
In
Nepal, water is often associated with disaster. Every year, landslides and floods
destroy farms, even entire village, displacing hundreds of people from their place
of origin. In recent times, districts of Nepal have shown signs of
vulnerability to environmental stress, particularly drought related stress. In
fact, water scarcity has even driven people to abandon their homes and the
number of people increasing every year.
In the hills, the spring which feeds local water sources are drying up
rapidly, while in the Terai ground water is depleting.
The
scarcity of water has impacted farming and animal husbandry as well every day
household chores and personal hygiene, causing considerable hardship. The
depletion of water sources has forced drought affected areas to import both
food and water. Where water problems are serious, people migrate temporarily
during the dry months and then return when monsoon rains restore water
availability, but when it is serious they migrate for good (NPC Policy brief,
2013).
Over
the last 10 years, water sources in several areas in the country have been
reported as progressively drying up. From Panchthar in the east to Myagdi in
the west, springs in the upland have been seen drying up rapidly. When springs go dry, it is difficult to get water even the
relatively small amounts needed for domestic purposes. The shortage of water
has affected all aspects of life.
Floods,
landslides, erosion and droughts have always been a major cause of impediment
for development especially at local level where majority of the people are
dependent on biomass based economy as these environmental stresses affect the
ecosystem services and the production system that rely on these services. As a
result, a large number of people are trapped in the vicious cycle of poverty in
spite of the hard work they do. A dearth of employment and economic
opportunities continue to force Nepali youth to seek foreign employment, a
trend which will have consequences far into the future. Already over two
million people are officially working abroad and many more are undocumented
migrant workers.
Environmental
stresses have significant cost and economic burden on those groups especially
households headed by women, women having small children to take care of, as
their coping strategy are limited with added responsibility to secure food,
fuel and water.
A
study conducted in 2013 showed that drought has increasingly affected people and
in the extreme cases people have begun migrating. In order to devise
appropriate policy tool to address the issues that result from drought, it needs
information about the economic implication of drought that has led to
displacement. According to the national crop situation update of 2012-2013, the
net food deficit in Panchthar district is about 7674.21 mt (20%). This data
also indicate that extreme food scarcity in the Panchthar district.
Thus,
this study has been conducted in the selected VDCs in Panchthar district with the
objective of assessing the cost of the increasing
drought and its impact on production system as well as on livelihood of the
people in the villages of Yashok, Syabarumba, and Ranigaun in the Panchthar
district, and recommending appropriate measure(s) that needs to be adopted to
address the issue.
2
Tools and Methodology
In order
to assess the economic impact of the drought, NPC with the support from the
UNDP’s PEI programme conducted a study in March, 2014, using a combination of
qualitative and quantitative methods in three drought stricken VDCs of Yashok,
Syabarumba and Ranigaun in Panchthar an
eastern hill district of Nepal . Information was collected from various primary
as well as secondary sources developing indicators (Annex 1). Altogether, 6
settlements of 3 VDCs were purposively selected for in-depth study. Information
was collected using a set of participatory tools and techniques mainly Focused
Group Discussions (FGD), Key Informants' Interviews. Interactions with
concerned stakeholders were conducted and observation of the condition of
natural water resources, agriculture field, cattle shed, toilets, schools were
made during field visits.
The methodological steps followed for the study has
been briefly described below:
2.1
Review of report and secondary information
The following documents
and reports, to following documents and reports and other study reports to gain
an insight about overall status and glimpse of the environmental stress
especially drought and its impacts:
·
Policy brief,
2013, Depleting water sources: An emerging crisis, National Planning
Commission, Kathmandu; Published in November 2013.
·
Environmental
causes of Displacement, 2013. "A study of how the environmental problems
of five districts impact the displacement of the people who live there"
National Planning Commission, Nepal.
·
Crop situation
Updates. A joint assessment of the 2013 winter crops including comprehensive
data on the 2012.13 overall crop production; MOAD, FOA and WFP.
·
Other Relevant Studies/Assessment Reports
print and electronic version.
·
Visit and
discussion with Ministry of Agriculture Development (MOAD), Integrated water
management project of Department of Agriculture, Harihar Bhavan, Katmandu and
Department of Livestock Services, Harihar bhawan, Kathmandu personnel .
2.2
Meeting
and discussion with PEI, NPC focal person
The desk review enabled
the consultant to gain an over view of conducting analysis, types of
information and indicators, appropriate tools, intended outputs, anticipated
results and key persons of the VDCs under study as well finalization of report.
2.3
Field
visit and observation of toilet, natural water sources, agriculture field and
cattle shed school etc.
2.4
Key informant's interview / survey with key informants
(women, farmers, people of old age, youths, with water stress vulnerable
groups/ individuals (widow, single men and women, etc.)
Set of formats of checklist were prepared (Annex-1) for
collection of information from primary sources. This format was used to draw the information from
various groups of people/ individual facing the water stress randomly in the
study area. The women, youths, farmers,
teachers, committee members of the SUKHA KCHETRA TAMMER PUMPSET KHANE PANI
YOJANA, Yashok were consulted.
2.5
Interaction
with the stake holders like VDC, NGOs, agriculture, livestock service centers
Interaction
was also held with VDCs secretary of
Yashok and Syabarumba, District Agriculture Development Officer (DADO),
Panchthar and DDC personnel was done regarding the issues, policy measures
taken and suggestions for the displacement due to water scarcity. District
Livestock Service Officer (DLSO) was contacted by phone due to his availability
in district head quarter Phiddim, during field work for the study.
2.6
Focused
Group Discussion with the mother group, agriculture farmers groups
The
focus group discussion was carried out in participatory manner in villages/
tole where extreme problem of water persisted. FGD were done in Yashok ward 1 and 3,
Syabarumba 6, 7 & 8 and Ranigaun 6 among the men and women.
2.7
Meeting
and reviewing of records of school, VDC secretary, health post
Inter
action meeting was also held with the teachers/ Resource Person (RP) of the
Yashok, Syabrumba and Ranigaun for the information related to consequences of
drought to students and education environment. Health post could not be visited
due to weekend holiday.
2.8
Observations
of the local water sources and impacts of drought on agriculture and livestock.
During the visit, spring and natural water sources
were visited to assess the situation of water supply and its hygienic
condition. The agriculture farm/field and cattle shed were also observed for
assessing the consequences of drought on agriculture and cattle.
3
FINDINGS:
Displacement
of the people is increasing from Yashok, Syabarumba and Ranigaun VDCs of Panchthar
district every year due to consequence on the lives and livelihoods of the
people because of water shortage. Impact of water scarcity on social, gender,
economical, education, health, etc were found similar to all the VDCs visited.
Major findings obtained during the Focused
Group Discussion (FGD) and Key Informant’s Survey are explained as under:
·
Affect on crop productivity yield, cropping pattern, high cost of
production
Due to continue decline rainfall, most of the Bari
land has become barren and fallow in this area; maize crop has been grown in Khet (low land) and millet have been
placed in river side in very small area. No paddy production at all in this
area because of very less rainfall during the monsoon. In totality cropping
pattern has been changed, khet land has
become bari land and bari land become barren. In land where 2-3 crops were harvested, now
only one crop i.e. maize is growing
in summer season (Baisakh to Bhadra). Inter crop of millets is limited to a
small pockets.
Along with 50
% reduction in cultivating area, production of crops like maize and finger
millet has also reduced by 50%. Production
of the rice almost stopped and seed of local variety have also been lost. The
cultural value of rice has been lost due to unavailability of paddy, since
spraying of paddy behind the death body while carrying to graveyard (ASMASAN),
has stopped.
·
Impact on source of income
Since the agriculture is main source of income of
the people, reduced production of crops has impacted badly on sources of
income. People of this region bound to search other source of income. Some
families have gone to other countries for employment and earning.
·
Alternative livelihood option affected
Alternative livelihood opportunity like goat /sheep
rearing has also affected by 50 % and likewise pig rearing affected by almost 75% due to unavailability
of water and feed. The daily land based labor has adversely affected since no
agriculture is done by large and middle farmers.
·
Extra expenses to purchase water, food, temporary
lodging, health, education
People of the near to the Yashok bazaar and road
side purchase water during March to July at rate of Rs 300 per 200 litres of
water in drum carried in tractor. One drum water last for 4- 5days for drinking,
kitchen and washing and cleaning face.
·
Livestock production decreased
Livestock production is also affected more due to
water scarcity in the studied VDCs. The population of large animal like cow,
buffalo and bullock has declined to half. Natural grasses and fodder availability
has significantly reduced. The small animal such as goats and sheep has also been
affected as decreasing grass and water in the area by 30-40%. Decreased
livestock also due to the people engaging in livestock now has to engage in
searching water available from faraway sources.
·
Diseases or health problem in livestock
Livestock diseases are also prominent in the area
due to water scarcity
Digestion become problem and was found causing
constipation in large animal. It caused liver fluke, anorexia, weakness and
reduction of milk and meat production. People's household income from livestock
has reduced to more than half from Rs 50-60 thousands annually.
·
Expenditure in medical treatment
The expenses in treatment of livestock diseases
incurred Rs 500-1000 depending on the seriousness and ability to pay.
·
Reduction of skilled labor and its impact in
community
The skilled labor of house constructing, carpenter,
tailor, blacksmith were also displacing with the others.
·
Dropout education of children in school
Figure 1:
Students carrying water from sources in Syabrumba VDC of Panchthar
Education of children has affected
adversely because of water shortage. While parents go to get water, no one is
left to cook meal and children would not get meal in time. Sometimes children have
to cook food. They are unable to sleep in nighttime as they go to collect water
as a result they do not go to school in time or not go at all. This all affect
the academic performance. About 3-5 days in a month boys abstain and even more
in girls. Girls frequent drop out and late in school due to no water in school
for washing bleeding during cycle resulting drop out more. In few cases seen
that students have fail 3 times in one class, resulting loss of Rs 15-20,000
annually.
·
Food scarcity and availability
Food availability was for 3-4 months only from own
production. This has been reduced by 50% due to water scarcity as maize
production reduced and rice production affected more. Income from remittance
has supported people to feed daily. Almost every family has been earning at
least Rs 30,000 per month from remittance. The food habit has changed to rice
from maize and millet items in early days. Few people consume maize and millet
in less quantity.
·
Health affected causing diarrhea, dysentery, internal
parasites, fever, typhoid, cholera, etc. urinary problems like stone,
constipation, dehydration
It was found that people are facing problem of
diarrhea, dysentery, worms (more in children), typhoid fever, UTI, stones
development in urinary tract. Dehydration and constipation found in people of
older age. Infested people are expending about Rs 5 thousands to -40 thousands
depending on the severity of case. Jaundice, head bending (neuron problem),
lower abdomen pain is serious, incurred up to Rs 1.5 lakhs.
·
Other health problems like prolapsed of uterus,
other diseases.
It was found that women were more victims to water shortage
as women bear more responsibility of cooking food and also to biological
system. It was found that 3 times monthly cycle with excess bleeding, lower
abdomen pain, prolapsed of uterus, pain at knee, back pain, etc are common due
to carrying heave pot of water from far away.
·
Conflict with in family and community
Conflict and dispute found
in villages because of water shortage such as water
pot breaking, throwing and stealing. Competition in water filling was found at
water sources especially in job pressure in morning. There was also caste based
dispute because of water and casualty was occurred for an instant Mr Hum
Bdr. Bohra had bitten with teeth on thumb of Mr Suraj Buthathoki on 26th Falgun, 2070 B.S.
·
Social discrimination (un -touch ability, caste,
gender based discrimination)
Gender based
violence (domestic, social, etc)
There is no untouchability and cast based issues due
to water in study area. People urged in marriage not to bring gift in marriage
but bring water irrespective of caste.
·
Consequences in marriage and divorce
People of the area are facing problem to get marry to
their sons. As water carrying from water sources from far away, so people of
water available area do not agree to give daughters to water shortage area. But
marriage is going on between girls and boys of similar problem. If girl of the
water available area is married, do not prefer to stay in the husband
house. Case of marrying with two wives
to carry water was also seen.
·
Displacement/ migration
People of the region have been displacing every year
on an average of 10-15faimilies in each VDCs due to water un availability/ scarcity.
According to the VDC secretary of Syabrumba Ms Nisa Koirala 50 individuals have
taken migration certificate in year 2070-71 BS. In month of Chaitra only, 10
individuals have taken migration certificate.
·
Time elapse for collecting water daily
The natural water sources have dried and water
streams have gone downwards in lower region. Water availability became too far
away and sources have become thinner, causing people more time to collect water
ranging from 1- 6 hours depending on the distance, current of water supply and
queue at sources. People go at night with sleeping bag and come home in
morning. One people can bring one pot of
water of 22 litres at a time. As daily labor rate is Rs 200-300, cost of the
water occurred about Rs 5 per litre.
Figure 2:
Ms NirmalaBohara aged 78 of Yashok, Panchthar carrying 25 litres water pot for
their lives
·
Difficulty in drinking water collection
Due to water unavailability and possibility of water
people go to water sources at night at 10 PM with sleeping bags and burning material/firewood
to warm in cold season. They use to come home at morning. Some time people do
not get water at one source reach to next and next spring. Sometimes it has
taken 30 minutes to 1 hour to fill one pot of water of 20-22 litres.
·
Burden for caring livestock in concern to
drinking
The cattle drinking water has too difficult because
more water required to them. Some of the people use to take cattle to source of
water in river along with them while going for water. Few people give 5-10
liters daily to their animals which are not sufficient.
·
Difficulty in agriculture operation
Digging of land has become difficult due to no or
little moisture. Extra 50% bullock force has required preparing the land for
sowing of crops due to land become hard. Many piece of land are barren due to
no irrigation facility and resulted no yield. Irrigation problems caused more
weeds and pest disease infestation more due to dryness.
·
Status of toilet in maintaining hygienic
In spite of declaration of ODF in the VDCs studied
and government has given pressure by restricting to vital registration like
birth, marriage, citizenship, death, etc. People have made toilets but people
have not used toilets due to water shortage. Few have made additional pit latrine
in bazzar area and many people use to go in bushes and lower hiding places
openly. This bound to disrespect the ODF declaration. Few people have put their
effort to collect rainwater from rood putting pipes and delivered to drum.
·
Status of source of drinking water
Most of the sources have dried up and ants are
moving at water sources and few in running stage with minimum flow. The
hygienic condition of the water sources has become poor and people have to take
water from leached out cup to cup. Management of the sources has also poor due
to no or less water supply.
·
Status of source of natural source of animal
drinking like lake, rivulet and rivers
Status of the
natural pond for drinking water for cattle has muddy so water leaching and percolation
or run off due poor managed. They have dried up and few have filled up with mud
and bank of the ponds were withered.
3.6 Households affected due to water shortage
There are 18,000 populations in about 2200
households in three VDCs. The shortage of water impacted severely to the
households in 3 VDCs are given in Table 1.
Table: 1 Number
of households facing water scarcity in three VDCs
|
Rani gaun
(Ward and HHs)
|
Syabrumba
(Ward and HHs)
|
Yashok
(Ward and HHs)
|
|
8-150
6-225
1-125
7-100
|
1, 5 & 9-550
7-96
8-35
|
3-300 (Bazar and
village)
2-120
4-60
5-100
6-120
9-98
1-177
8-50
|
|
Total=500
|
Total=654
|
Total=1025
|
3.7 Displacement
of the households from the village in VDCs
People
of the region have displaced from various settlement are given in Table 2. HHs
displaced were found more from Syabrumba (42%) and followed by Yashok (40%) and
least from Ranigaun (4%).
Table 2: Displacement of HH due
to drought over the time
|
HH
|
Yashok
During 3
years period
|
Syabrbarumba
During 5
years period
|
Ranigaun
During 1
years period
|
|
Total HH in
last years
|
Ward -1
298
|
Ward-8 (dhande)
61
|
Ward-1
200
|
|
Displaced HH
|
121
|
26
|
7
|
|
Displacement %
|
40%
|
42%
|
4%
|
On an average
4- 15 % people are displacing every year from this region. The rate of displace
is more Yashok followed by Syabrumba and Ranigaoun.
People of the region are raising the
issue of water scarcity; it must be included as Water Right in human right
because without water we could not be saved for few days. VDC and resource of VDC could not solve the problem
of water scarcity. Tammar River is only
the solution of water supply in the region which is 9 km from the
Yashokbazaarby trail based and 1.3 meter directly. The water will be uplifted
from Tammer River with 6 stations. If
it will not be solved, we also moved where water is available or government
should say that you are not citizen of the country.
3.8 Economic analysis based on
the FDG and data available:
Though
it is difficult to calculate all kinds of loss due to water scarcity, A
calculation of economic value of various losses was done based of the value of
additional losses and expenditure expressed by the people during FDG. This was
averaged and multiplied by the total number of HH affected by drought in 3
VDCs. Total values were calculated by adding all VDCs and expenses.
Table 3: Economic analysis for
displacement of people due to drought
|
Cost
expenses (Rs)/ hh
|
Range of additional
expenses Rate (Rs/HH/ year)
|
Average
expenses
(Rs/ HH)
|
Expenses in Yashok
|
Expenses in Syabrbarumba
|
Expenses in Ranigaun
|
Total
Expenses (Rs)
|
|
|
( 1025 HH)
|
(654 HH)
|
(500 HH)
|
|||
|
Food item
|
20,000-25000
|
22,000
|
22,550,000
|
14,388,000
|
11,000,000
|
47,938,000
|
|
Health &
medical treatment
|
5,000-50,000
|
27,000
|
11,070,000
|
7,063,200
|
5,400,000
|
23,533,200
|
|
Water cost
or purchasing for 4 months (daily Rs 100-150)
|
12,000-15,000
|
13,500
|
13,837,500
|
8,829,000
|
6,750,000
|
29,416,500
|
|
Medicine for
livestock
|
2000-5000
|
3,500
|
2,511,250
|
1,602,300
|
1,225,000
|
5,338,550
|
|
Education
|
15000-20000
|
18,000
|
16,605,000
|
10,594,800
|
8,100,000
|
35,299,800
|
|
Expenses
total
|
|
|
66,573,750
|
54,936,000
|
42,000,000
|
163,509,750
|
|
Loss in
agriculture
|
10,000-30,000
|
20,000
|
15,375,000
|
9,810,000
|
7,500,000
|
32,685,000
|
|
Loss from
livestock
|
40,000-60,000
|
50,000
|
38,437,500
|
24,525,000
|
18,750,000
|
81,712,500
|
|
Loss total
|
|
|
53,812,500
|
34,335,000
|
26,250,000
|
114,397,500
|
|
Total expenses & loss
|
|
|
120,386,250
|
89,271,000
|
68,250,000
|
277,907,250
|
A
total of Rs 2.77 billion is in loss or expending by the drought affected people
of Yashok, Syabrumba and Ranigaun VDCs of Panchthar district. The highest 1.2
billion Rupees from Yashok, followed by 0.89 billion in Syabrumba and 0.67
billion from Ranigaun have additional loss due to water scarcity drought.
4
CONCLUSION
UNDP/
PEI/NPC has hired independent consultant to carry out the study on economic analysis of the increasing drought and its impact
on production system as well as on livelihood of the people in the villages of
Yashok, Ranigaun, and Syabarumba in the Panchthar district and recommend
appropriate measure(s) that needs to be adopted to address the issue. Present study reveals that
the drought has caused social, economical and cultural aspect due to health of
people and animal, loss of agricultural and livestock production, extra expenditure
in food, water, education, medicines, etc. It was reported that people of
Mangjabung, Mahua and Aagna VDCs are also facing problem of water scarcity and
displacing. The open defecation free declaration is difficult to follow due to water
scarcity. People have to run over the water sources taking 2-6 hours times.
Women health and hygienic condition is becoming worst and marriage of son is
becoming difficult. Seize of rice production, 50 % decline of maize and millet
and changing of cropping pattern and 50% decline milk and meat due to low
population of cattle and goat have the bad effect on agriculture. The
interventions of water harvesting practices, new crop variety, health campaign,
and improved water intensive techniques are required besides the water supply
from Tammer River.
5
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Our sincere gratitude goes to management team of
PEI/UNDP and NPC Nepal for funding to conduct study. It is grateful to Dr Pushpa
Lal Shakya, National Project Manager/NPC for strategic guideline and sincere
appreciation to Mr Madhukar Upadhyaya/PEI, providing valuable inputs to
finalize methodology and data collection tools, arranging necessary logistic
and field visits supports and also providing access to information and relevant
reports to the assignment.
We are thankful to Dr Padam Khatiwada, National
consultant, Mr Nar Bahadur Khatiwada, Mr Meghnath Niraula, Mr That Bahadur Ghimire,
teacher Mr Ganesh Chemjong, teacher Mr Madan Kumar Bohara and Mr Raju Khatiwada
for valuable guidance in field visit and supporting to gather people for
Focused Group Discussion (FDG) in Yahsok region. We also thankful to Ms Tuka Baral
secretary of Yashok and Ms Nisa Koirala, secretary of Syabarumba VDC, Mr Laxya Bahadur
Chaudhary Acting DADO of Panchthar and DDC personnel Mr Manish Koirala
(Environment Officer and Yadav Chandra Gautam (engineer) for their time and
information related to the study.
6. References:
·
Policy brief,
2013, Depleting water sources: An emerging crisis, National Planning
Commission, Kathmandu; Published in November 2013.
·
Environmental
causes of Displacement, 2013. "A study of how the environmental problems
of five districts impact the displacement of the people who live there"
National Planning Commission, Nepal.
·
National crop
situation update of 2012-2013
Annex1
Major
Indicators used for the study
To undertake the study the following indicators have
been broadly identified;
1
Economical
impacts
·
Affect
on crop productivity yield, cropping
pattern, high cost of production
·
Impact
on source of income
·
Alternative
livelihood option affected
·
Extra
expenses to purchase water, food, temporary lodging, health, education
·
Livestock
production decreased
·
Diseases
prevalence in livestock
·
Expenditure
in medical treatment
·
Reduction
of skilled labor and its impact in community.
2
Basic
needs and service impacts
·
Dropout
education of children in school
·
Food
scarcity and availability
·
Health
affected causing diarrhea, dysentery, internal parasites, fever, typhoid,
cholera, etc. Urinary problems like stone, constipation, dehydration
·
Other
health problems like prolapsed of uterus, other diseases.
6
Social
impacts:
·
Conflict
with in family and community
·
Social
discrimination (un -touch ability, caste, gender based discrimination)
·
Gender
based violence (domestic, social, etc)
·
Consequences
in marriage and divorce
·
Displacement/
migration.
7
Men
and women drudgery
·
Time
elapse for collecting water daily
·
Difficulty
in drinking water collection
·
Burden
for caring livestock in concern to drinking
·
Difficulty
in agriculture operation.
8
Source
of water impacts
·
Status
of toilet in maintaining hygienic
·
Status
of source of drinking water
·
Status
of source of natural source of animal drinking like lake, rivulet and rivers
