SHREE BHAGAVAN THAKUR* and GYANENDRA KARKI **
Shree Bhagavan Thakur
e-mail: shreebhagavanthakur@gmail.com;
and Gyanendra Karki e-mail: gyanendra.karki@ gmail.com
Abstract
Agriculture accounts
for nearly one‐thirds of the gross domestic product and two-thirds of labor
employment of Nepal. Agriculture sector is disproportionately vulnerable to the
impacts of climate change which is adversely impacting agriculture productivity
and food security. Climate change adaptation is emerging as an important
developmental challenge in Nepal. This paper approaches to enhance
understanding on the climate change adaptation measures for addressing impacts
of climate change on agriculture system. Further, this will inform farmers,
policy makers, planner and stakeholders for climate change adaptation planning
to build adaptive capacity and promote resilient to agriculture sector in
Nepal. This document provides guidance on the identification and selection of
adaptation options that can be used to respond to climate risks. This study is aimed at supporting
decision and policy makers who are faced with identifying and appraising the
effectiveness of adaptation measures that address identified climate risks.
Key words: Adaptation, agriculture, climate change,
farmers, and resilient.
Introduction
The Nepalese agricultural sector is very heterogeneous in
natural conditions and farming systems and highly vulnerable to climate change. Agriculture
in Nepal is highly vulnerable to climate change due to climate variability and
related risks of the natural disasters. Large proportion of marginal farmers
with small landholding, limited irrigation, low income level, limited
institutional capacity, and greater dependency of agriculture on climate-sensitive
natural resources increase the degree of vulnerability (Regmi and Adhikari,
2007; World Bank, 2008).
Nepal is one of the most vulnerable
countries to climate change impacts. Climate and its variability is already
affecting the Nepal's agriculture sector. The climate related hazards like
floods, droughts, hailstorms, heat, and cold waves; and pest and diseases, soil
erosion, deforestation and desertification are recurring and posing severe
threats to the sector (FAO, 2016).
Agriculture in Nepal, accounts nearly
one-thirds of the national gross domestic product (GDP), represents 13 % of
total foreign trade and has engaged two-third of the country’s economically
active population. Agriculture is still
accounted as the major economic sector of Nepal (CBS 2012). About 21 % of the
total land is cultivated, of which 54 % has irrigation facilities with only
0.68 ha per household land holding size. Over 50 % of farmers are small holders
cultivating land usually less than 0.5 ha. Agriculture in Nepal is mostly
rain-fed and climate sensitive.
Climate vulnerability is commonly interlinked with poverty
and food insecurity, not all poverty alleviation efforts constitute effective
reduction in climate vulnerability and not all adaptation will automatically lead
to immediate improvements in food security (FAO, 2011).
The
projected changes in production is equivalent to a 15.5% decrease in 2020, 5.6%
increase in 2050 and 9.7% decrease in 2080 in terms of present level of
production. Resulting, the national loss in food production is expected to be
5.3% in 2020, 3.5% in 2050 and 12.1% in 2080. The loss of food grain thus
accounts to 435 thousand metric tons in 2020, 302 thousand metric tons in 2050
and 1040 thousand metric tons in 2080 (MoSTE, 2014 a).
The
observed negative climate change impacts on agriculture like Eastern Tarai
faced rain deficit in the year 2005/06 by early monsoon and crop production
reduced by 12.5% on national basis. Nearly 10% of Agriculture- land were left
fallow due to rain deficit but mid-western Tarai faced heavy rain with floods,
which reduced production by 30% in the year (Regmi, 2007).
Similarly, the climate
change affects the food security adversely at all four levels-global, national,
household and individual and also affects the entire food system from
production, processing, distribution, consumption and utilization (Pant, 2012).
Rising
temperature increases lignification of plant tissues and reduces the
digestibility (Minson, 1990), reducing meat and milk production in range-based
livestock production system. Increased heat stress is another pathway affecting
the livestock production. The increased heat alters heat exchange between
animal and environment affecting the feed intake and metabolism (SCA, 1990;
Mader and Davis, 2004). Climate change also increases mortality and morbidity
of animals particularly from the climate sensitive infectious diseases (Patz et
al., 2005b) and reduction in the productivity of rain-fed crops used for
livestock and poultry feed; reduction in productivity of forage crops; reduced
water availability and more widespread water shortages; and changing severity
and distribution of important human, livestock and crop diseases (Thornton et
al. 2009).
Adaptation to
climate change has emerged as a challenge to achieving and sustaining the
development outcomes as mitigation is not taking place as needed (Eriksen 2011).
Adaptation to climate change is also emerging as an important developmental
challenge in Nepal and globally. To address climate change risks and
vulnerabilities, a set of mutually integrated strategies are necessary at
different sectors and levels (Regmi and Bhandari 2013).
Aims and Objectives
This
study aims at enhancing understanding on the climate change adaptation and providing
guidance on the identification and selection of adaptation options that can be
used to respond to climate risks in agriculture. It also supports decision and
policy makers who are faced with identifying the effectiveness of adaptation
measures for developing climate change resilient agriculture in Nepal.
Materials and methods
This paper is based on the review
of published reports, journal articles and research papers.
For this, information was gathered
from several national and international documents. Similarly, data has been
collected through national and international data source. It is done through
the process of skimming and scanning. Although the climate change has adversely
affected every sector, this paper is mainly focused on the adaptation measure
to impacts of climate change on agriculture system. Only the climate change
adaptaion measures and resiliest measures related to agriculture system and
agriculture sector regarding climate change has been included. This paper has
been written with the objective of sharing the knowledge and information about
the impacts of climate change on agriculture system to build adaptation options
for resilient agriculture system.
Discussions
Concept, definition and context
Generic
meaning of Adaptation is that certain generalized structures possesses
by all the organization which can be used for survival in any kind of environment.
Each of these structures can be improved upon considerably to meet the requirements
of one or the other kind of different environment. These improvement in structure
in any system of the body in living organisms which help in adjusting it to the
new environment are called adaptation. (A text book of Pre-university biology,
vol 1)
Adaptation in biology, process by which an animal or
plant species becomes
fitted to its environment; it is the result of natural selection’s
acting upon heritable variation.
Even the simpler organisms must be adapted in a great variety of ways: in their
structure, physiology, and genetics, in their locomotion or
dispersal, in their means of defense and attack, in their reproduction and
development, and in other respects.
In early
17th century, three meanings of adaptation in biology are: firstly, in a
physiological sense- an animal or plant can adapt by adjusting to its immediate
environment. Secondly, in reproductive sense, either to the process of becoming
adapted or to the features of organisms that promote reproductive success relative
to other possible features which is driven by genetic variations among
individuals. The process of adaptation occurs through an eventual change in the
gene frequency relative to advantages conferred by a particular characteristic.
Thirdly, in natural selection sense,
adaptation feature evolved by natural selection for a specific function.[i]
All
biologists agree that organismal traits commonly reflect adaptations. However, much disagreement has arisen over the
role of history and constraint in the appearance of traits as well as the best methodology. A trait may be a function of history rather than
adaptation.
The
most accepted definition of adaptation is an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to
actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or
exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be
distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and
public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation (IPCC TAR, 2001a)
The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and
its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate harm or exploit
beneficial opportunities. In natural
systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and
its effects. The following two types of the adaptation actions should be
addressed at policy and program level.
•
Incremental adaptation: Adaptation actions where the central aim is to maintain the
essence and integrity of a system or process at a given scale.
•
Transformational adaptation: Adaptation that changes the fundamental attributes of a
system in response to climate and its effects.
Most synonymously
used term the Resilience is defined as the capacity of a
social-ecological system to cope with a hazardous event or disturbance,
responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain its essential function,
identity, and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation,
learning, and transformation (IPCC2014).
Policy
arrangement for climate change adaptation
Response to climate change in Nepal has been
growing in recent years with an effort to cope with the changing situation and
build resilience capacity into adaptation to climate change. In climate induced
vulnerability context, Nepal developed policy level provision regarding to
adaptation policy called National Adaptation Programme of Action to climate
change (NAPA).[8] The NAPA document opened the door to act adaptation activities
into country. Under the provision of national level policy, Local Adaptation
Plan of Action (LAPA) national framework [9] devised out by government. It only mentioned the provision of the
implementation mechanism at district or village development committee level to act climate change adaptation.
In 2010, Parties established the Cancun
Adaptation Framework (CAF) that provides opportunities to address medium- and
long-term adaptation needs in the developing countries (both LDCs and
non-LDCs). It has established a process to enable LDC Parties to formulate and
implement national adaptation plans (NAPs), building upon their NAPA
experience, as a means to identifying and implementing medium- and long-term adaptation needs.
In Paris agreement: Article
7: Adaptation – several paras related to NAP
Para 1: establishment
of the global goal on adaptation of enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening
resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change.
Para 5: Adaptation action should follow a country-driven,
gender-responsive, participatory
and fully transparent
approach, taking into
consideration vulnerable groups, communities and ecosystems, and should
be based on and guided by the best available science and, as appropriate, traditional knowledge,
knowledge of indigenous peoples and local knowledge systems, with a view to
integrating adaptation into relevant socioeconomic and environmental policies
and actions, where appropriate.
The
Durban decision 2011 defined the objectives to reduce vulnerability to the
impacts of climate change, by building adaptive capacity and
resilience and to facilitate the integration of climate change adaptation,
in a coherent manner, into relevant new and existing
policies, programmes and activities, in particular development planning processes
and strategies, within all relevant sectors and at different levels, as
appropriate. It also outlined four key elements (Lay the groundwork and address
the gaps, Preparatory elements, Implementation strategies and Reporting,
monitoring and review) and several steps which
may be undertaken as appropriate.
Nepal has also adopted and agreed to formulate
NAP and accordingly initiated the
process following given NAP guideline. MoFE is a focal point of UNFCC for the
formulation of NAP and initiated
the NAP process in seven thematic
working groups and two cross-cutting areas.
Concept
Climate change adaptation is a response to global warming and climate change, that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of social and
biological systems to relatively sudden change and thus offset the effects of global warming. Even if emissions are stabilized relatively soon, global
warming and its effects should last many years, and adaptation would be
necessary to the resulting changes in climate. Adaptation is especially
important in developing countries since those countries are predicted to bear
the brunt of the effects of global warming. That is, the capacity and
potential for humans to adapt i.e. adaptive capacity, is unevenly distributed
across different regions and populations, and developing countries generally
have less capacity to adapt (Schneider et al.,
2007). Furthermore, the degree of adaptation correlates to the situational
focus on environmental issues.[5]Therefore, adaptation requires the
situational assessment of sensitivity and vulnerability to environmental
impacts.[6]
Adaptive capacity is closely linked to social and economic development (IPCC,
2007).[7] The economic costs of
adaptation to climate change are likely to cost billions of dollars annually for
the next several decades, though the amount of money needed is unknown. Donor
countries promised an annual $100 billion by 2020 through the Green Climate Fundfor
developing countries to adapt to climate change. However, while the fund was
set up during COP16
in Cancún, concrete pledges by developed countries have not been
forthcoming.[8][9][10] The adaptation challenge grows
with the magnitude and the rate of climate change.
Another response to climate change, known as climate change
mitigation (Verbruggen, 2007)[11] is to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and/or
enhance the removal of these gases from the atmosphere (through carbon sinks).[12] Even the most effective
reductions in emissions, however, would not prevent further climate change
impacts, making the need for adaptation unavoidable (Klein et al.,
2007).[13] In a literature assessment,
Klein et al. (2007) assessed options for adaptation. They
concluded, with very high confidence, that in the absence of mitigation
efforts, the effects of climate change would reach such a magnitude as to make
adaptation impossible for some natural ecosystems. Others are concerned that climate
adaptation programs might interfere with the existing development programs and
thus lead to unintended consequences for vulnerable groups.[14] For human systems, the
economic and social costs of
unmitigated climate change would be very high.[15]
Principles of
Climate change adaptation
Climate Change
Adaptation applies to policies, practices and projects which can either reduce
risks and / or realise opportunities associated with climate change. Adaptation
affects all levels of decision-making, all regions as well as most sectors.
Adaptation needs to be structured as a cross-sectoral, multi-level and
inter-regional activity bringing together actors with different knowledge,
interests and values. Adaptation is not simply about doing more, it is about
new ways of thinking and dealing with risk and hazards, uncertainty and
complexity. Exploring suitable adaptation pathways to address existing vulnerabilities and
increase resilience will require a process of learning by people and
organisations. Although every adaptation process needs to be context specific,
several key principles are commonly recognized to support good adaptation.
CORE PRINCIPLES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION (FAO-Adapt Framework
Programme on Climate Change Adaptation)
Food security: Climate change is
likely to severely threaten the achievement of food security and thus impact
the ability of the international community to achieve its foremost Millennium
Development Goal (MDG1), to reduce extreme poverty and hunger. Therefore, FAO’s
work on climate change adaptation has a strong focus on actions with potential
to reduce vulnerability and ensure food and nutrition security.
Mainstream climate change into development: With
mainstreaming, adaptation is increasingly becoming an integral part of FAO’s
support and services to member countries. With appropriate planning, climate
change adaptation can be integrated into sustainable development initiatives
and into food security, agriculture, forestry and fisheries planning and
programming, resulting in climate-smart agriculture and other developmental
benefits.
Support country-driven processes: FAO’s activities on adaptation are delivered
on a demand-driven basis, based on the specific needs of countries. FAO
supports the preparation and implementation of national adaptation programmes
and priorities, such as National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs),
UNFCCC National Communication Reports, and other adaptation planning
instruments or programmes that build adaptive capacity and resilience into
human and natural systems.
Build synergies between adaptation and mitigation: FAO promotes an integrated
approach to build synergies among climate change adaptation and mitigation,
food security and sustainable development. Promoting climate-smart agriculture
that can increase productivity and resilience (adaptation), reduce or remove
GHGs (mitigation), and enhance achievement of national food security and
development goals is at the centre of FAO’s support to its member countries.
The goal is to find comprehensive solutions that combine strategy, policy,
institutional and technical options.
Promote ecosystem approach: FAO supports an ecosystem approach to policy
development and natural resource management. This approach includes incentives
that consider food production along with ecosystem capacity and resilience,
equity in access to resources, and integration of sectors that use common
resources. FAO has relevant technical expertise that it calls upon to support
adaptation activities, e.g. in agro-ecosystems, forests and rangelands, inland
waters, and coastal and marine ecosystems. The ecosystem approach also calls
for multidisciplinary cooperation.
Design participatory, gender-sensitive and location-specific adaptation
activities: Through its long experience in people-centered work on agriculture,
rural development and climate change, FAO recognizes that adaptation work also
calls for demand-driven, location-specific approaches and requires
participatory modalities that consider gender-specific vulnerabilities, needs
and capabilities as well as the priorities of Indigenous Peoples and vulnerable
communities.
Forms of Adaptation action
measures
Legal
arrangement and facility: constitution, policy, act, rules and regulation,
directives, guideline, strategy, plan, projects, programme, etc.
Preventive
measures: pre warning system, weather forecasting, weather advisory services,
groups, community organization, natural resources and utilization, etc.
Technology:
Knowledge
based: indigenous crop and animal breed, traditional practices, skill, and
experiences, etc.
Science
based: resistant / tolerant variety and animal breed, different climate
resilient practices, machine and equipment.
Infrastructure:
market, go-down, roads, canal, like physical structure.
Curative
measures: Subsidy, assistance, insurance, financial services, compensation,
etc.
National
plans priorities
The 13th
plan stressed on capacity building of user committee for making sustainable,
efficient and effective management and execution of irrigation systems. It
concentrated on environment friendly, climate change adaption, participatory development
and employment creation while developing, designing and implementing irrigation
infrastructures. The mainstreaming of environment, climate change and hazard
risk management during the formulation, operation and execution of irrigation
projects. Similarly, 14th plan realized that risk management of
climate change induced effects on water availability is the major challenge of
irrigation sector. It also stressed on ensuring user's participation for
sustainable management as well development and extension of irrigation system
for irrigation development master plan, achieving goals of Agriculture Development Strategy (ADS) and adaptation of climate change. For supplying the
irrigation facility, efficient use of irrigation system and participatory
management is focused.
Policy provision
The term is FAO has coined "Climate-Smart Agriculture”
at the Hague Conference on Agriculture, Food Security, and Climate Change in
2010. The definition says “sustainably increases productivity, enhances
resilience, reduces/removes greenhouse gas emissions, and enhances achievement
of national food security and development goals” (FAO 2010).
NAP Development
pathways 2017, Based the climate change vulnerability and risk to the sectors
and sub-sectors, the key areas of thematic interventions are as follows:
·
Innovative
research for development of adaptive variety/ breed, seed, technology, disease
and pest management,
·
Water use
efficient technology development of irrigation and water management
·
Development of
climate smart/ resilient technology and mechanization in agriculture and
livestock
·
Climate
information system like early warning system of climate hazards
·
Improvement of
grain/ food storage, distribution system
·
Conservation of
agro-biodiversity and landraces/breed
·
Promotion of
insurance and financial services mechanism
·
Management of
climate information and sectoral information system
·
Development and
strengthening of the farmers network and institutions
·
Promotion of
crop diversification, food diversification, Food utilization.
Table 4: Climate change adaptation strategies in irrigation
system
|
Drought
|
Sedimentation caused by flood
|
Water scarcity
|
|
·
Impoundment for the groundwater recharge
·
River linking of adjoining rivers for regular
run-off flow
·
Development of river basin transfer
·
Development of integrated services to water
·
Planting of trees for shade to water resources
·
Snow/dew harvesting in mountainous region
·
Improve irrigation systems and their efficiency
·
Improve use/store of rain and snow water.
·
Use marginal and waste water resources.
·
Change
irrigation practices.
·
Reduce tillage to lessen water loss
·
Incorporation of manures and compost,
·
Practice of cover cropping increase soil organic
matter to improve water retention.
·
Alter agronomic practices
·
Pre-warning system.
|
·
River linking of adjoining rivers for regular
run-off flow
·
Tree planting for erosion control and soil
conservation
·
Improvement of land management (Sustainable land
management practices-SALT, bio-engineering, Agro-forestry, etc.)
·
Extension of sustainable agriculture soil and water
conservation
·
Improve flood management
·
Improvement of design of canal and other irrigation
system
·
Maintain hydro-met data system
·
Pre-warning system.
|
·
Develop
and implement watershed
management plans for
critical watershed areas
·
Increase the efficiency of use and reduce losses of
irrigation water
·
Assessment of
current water management practices for climate resilience and identify for
improvement
·
Identify and map areas vulnerable to droughts and
flood hazards and prepare disaster risk management plans
·
Design
rational intra-basin and
trans-basin strategies to
harness periodic surpluses of water in storage facilities
·
Lining irrigation canals would help reduce water
loss
·
Technologies as modern drip or sprinkler irrigation
systems would improve the application of water to crops
·
Effective water management through pricing, taxes,
subsidies, and quotas to reduce water waste
·
Providing
farmers incentives to adopt resource-efficient technologies and penalizing
for unsustainable practices.
|
In
addition, Hu, (2011) reported that
adapting to scenarios of reduced water availability may involve increased
investments in water infrastructure to provide enough irrigation to maintain
existing agricultural production, or a shift from current production to less
water-consuming crops.
In India, Alam
et al. (2007) also revealed that a combination of traditional and innovative
technological approaches is used to manage drought risk. Technological
management of drought may be development and use of drought tolerant cultivars,
shifting cropping seasons in agriculture, flood and drought control techniques
in water management; is combined with model-based seasonal and annual to
decadal forecasts with early warning system to take appropriate drought
protection measures.
Integrating
activities in the national strategy for CCA and DRR, including drought risk
loss insurance; improved water use efficiency; adopting and adapting existing
water harvesting techniques; integrating use of surface and groundwater;
upgrading irrigation practices at both the farm level and on the delivery side;
developing crops tolerant to salinity and heat stress; changing cropping
patterns; altering the timing or location of cropping activities; diversifying
production systems into higher value and more efficient water use options; and
capacity building of relevant stakeholders in vulnerable national and local
areas (Abou Hadid, 2009; El-Quosy, 2009).
Key drivers and Adaptation options/ strategies
for Crop production and horticulture
|
Drought, Dry spell
|
Floods, Crop
inundation
|
|
Land slide
|
Pest and
diseases incidence
|
Cold waves
|
|
Adjustment of planning
dates and crop variety;
Crop relocation;
Improved land management
Identification, screening,
development and use of drought tolerance variety
Expansion of rainwater
harvesting, water storage and conservation technology, water reuse, water use
and irrigation efficient.
Development of agronomic
management practices for irrigation management
Extension of sustainable
agriculture soil and water conservation
Demonstrations of stress
reducing technologies
Crop insurance and
financial service
Early warning system,
weather forcasting system.
|
Adjustment of planning dates,
and crop and variety;
Identification, screening,
development and use of flood tolerance variety
Extension of integrated
farming system and technologies
Crop insurance and
financial services
|
Erosion control and soil
protection through tree planting
Improved land management
(Sustainable land management practices-SALT, bio-engineering, Agro-forestry,
etc.)
Extension of sustainable
agriculture soil and water conservation
Developing legislation for
cultivation of riverbeds and shrub lands
Development of legislation
for landscaping and land use
Crop insurance and
financial services
|
Identification of
landraces tolerant to biotic and abiotic stresses
Develop and
standardize agronomic management practices for integrated pest
management
Development of agronomic
management practices for integrated plant nutrient management
Crop insurance and
financial services
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
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||
|
|
|
|
|
Table 3: Adaptation options/ strategies for Livestock and
poultry
|
Heat stresses
|
Drought
|
|
Land slide
|
Heat stress/ waves
|
Cold waves
|
|
·
Develop
schemes for livestock shed improvement for reducing heat stress
·
Develop
strategies for promoting alternate bio-energy using agricultural residues
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Understanding
climate change resilience
Resilience
building through knowledge, advocacy, research, and training by making
information on drought risk accessible (UNISDR, 2007a). Building climate
resilience at the community level through reducing risk and facilitating
adaptation like improving access to water through region-specific activities
such as rainwater harvesting and creation of water pools from precipitation and
flood waters, for use for animals, pastureland, and crop irrigation purposes;
improving the quality of livestock by introducing local selective breeds with
higher productivity and more resilient to climate impacts; strengthened
veterinarian services to reduce animal diseases and parasites and cross-border
epidemic infections; and using traditional herding knowledge and techniques for
adjusting animal types and herd structure to make appropriate for the carrying
capacity of the pastureland and pastoral migration patterns. The formation of
herders’ community groups and establishment of pasture co-management teams
(Ykhanbai et al., 2004), along with better community-based disaster risk
management, could also facilitate effective DRR and CCA.
Conclusion
Climate change
is inevitable to Agriculture is the back bone of the development and economic
prosperity. Accelerating climate change has high impacts in agriculture sector.
The reduction of agriculture and livestock productivity is affecting food
production and enhancing poverty of Nepal. It has become crucial for immediate,
short, medium and long-term adaptation planning. It is imperative to identify
approaches that strengthen ongoing economic development efforts, reduce climate
change vulnerability and enhance the adaptive capacity of farmers, their
households and their communities. There is no alternative to adaptation measure
for frequent and severity of climate extreme events. The adaptation measures
are essential for making agriculture resilient through research, policy arrangements,
institutional capacity building and substantial investment in this sector. This
paper will support to link experts, policy makers, planners, farmers and
agriculture related institutions towards making resilient agriculture for
increased food production and prosperity of the country. The fine tuning them to respond to the current challenges will
benefit not only the farmers but also the entire humanity.
Acknowledgement
We would like to express our sincere appreciation to the
Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development and Food and Agriculture Organization-
Climate Change Adaptation in agriculture sector project for providing the
opportunity for this study. We also thank to Ministry of Forest and
Environment, sectoral departments, and NAP project team for their sincere help
and cooperation.
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