Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Livestock in Nepal

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Livestock in Nepal

Shree Bhagavan Thakur¹ e-mail: shreebhagavanthakur@gmail.com, and Gyanendra Karki ² e-mail: gyanendra.karki@forestrynepal.org

Abstract

Agriculture is the main stay of Nepal's economy and is highly vulnerable to climate change due to climate variability, climate-induced hazards and risks of the natural disasters. Large proportion of marginal farmers with small landholding, limited irrigation, low income level, limited institutional capacity, and greater dependency of agriculture on climate-sensitive natural resources has accelerated vulnerability. Climate change has observed effects on phenology of plants and breeding behavior of animals. This will likely affect production and productivity of agriculture and livestock from increased pest and disease infestation, and land degradation. It will further impact on soil fertility, animal fertility and behavior, and quality and quantity of food, feed and fodders, and biodiversity. Ultimately, higher cost of production and price of commodity is adversely affecting farm revenue, employment, income and finally on GDP. Insights on the climate change impacts on agriculture and livestock will help to various stakeholders to advance response mechanisms, including through policy, plan and strategy.

Key words: Agriculture; climate change; impacts; livestock and vulnerable.

Introduction

Nepal is one of the most climate vulnerable country both by virtue of its rogued and mountainous topography and the socio-culturally embedded poverty coupled with its status of Least Developed Country. The countries with the most risks are characterized by high levels of poverty, dense populations, exposure to climate-related events, and their reliance on flood and drought-prone agricultural land (Maplecroft, 2012). Agriculture in Nepal is highly vulnerable to climate change due to climate variability and related risks of natural disasters. Large proportion of marginal farmers with small landholding, limited irrigation, low income level, limited institutional capacity, and greater dependency of agriculture on climate-sensitive natural resources increase the degree of vulnerability (Regmi and Adhikari, 2007).

Climatic variables projected by Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) based on  General Circulation Model (GCM) estimated that the mean annual temperature is likely to increase by an average of 1.2⁰C by 2030, 1.7⁰C by 2050 and 3⁰C by 2100 compared to a pre-2000 baseline along with Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES B2) scenario. Likewise, Regional Circulation Models (RCM) project the mean annual temperature to increase by 1.4⁰C by 2030, 2.8⁰C by 2060 and 4.7⁰C by 2090 (NCVST, 2009).

OECD projected almost no change in winter precipitation in western Nepal and up to 5-10% increase in eastern Nepal. However, it projected an increase in precipitation for the whole country in the range of 15 to 20% during summer. NCVST, 2009 projected an increase in monsoon rainfall in eastern and central Nepal as compared to western Nepal but an increase in monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall as well as an increase in the intensity of rainfall, and a decrease in winter precipitation. The overall annual precipitation may be decreasing by 2 % of the baseline amount by 2020s. However, it increases by 6 % and 12 % of the baseline by 2050s and 2080s respectively (MoSTE, 2014b).

Agriculture is affected most when drought adversely impacts rain‐fed agriculture, largely in developing countries where the majority of farmers practice subsistence agriculture. In terms of agriculture and food security, local communities have identified changes in climate as being largely responsible for declining crop and livestock production. Nepal’s vulnerable subsistence farming economy is facing risk due to changes in stream flow, a more intense and potentially erratic monsoon rainfall, and flooding (JVS/GWP, 2015).

This paper collates data and information on major climate change impacts on agriculture and livestock to inform policy-makers, development workers, climate change advocates and producers to take into account the measures to help climate vulnerable to adapt to, and build resilience to climate change impacts.

Methodology

This study is based on rigorous review of climate change and agriculture related pertinent documents that were brought forth in Nepal's NAP process. It included but not limited to climate change convention related documents, national policies and strategies including plans and programmes, legal documents, published reports, journal articles, literatures and research papers. The information was drawn from national and international sources and they were critically scanned, skimmed, reviewed, shorted and analyzed for this study. This study was done from June 2016 to November 2016.

Results and Discussions

Global warming and climate change are the greatest concerns since they affect human beings and the whole ecosystem. Its impact on agriculture is more pronounced and easily understood as agro- sector is more dependent on nurture. In Nepal, early symptoms of climate change due to alarmingly increased temperature have been observed. Furthermore, Nepal was experienced sufficiency in paddy production and it has turned to a rice importer from an exporter till 1980s. Likewise, the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)[1] and Agriculture Development Strategy (ADS)[2] 2015–2030, reported that Nepal faces food grains deficit in more than 13 districts in the hill and high hill regions.

Crop and livestock farming, in different combination, are major way of life in the communities. Cereal crops including rice, wheat, maize, millet, barely and buckwheat is the mainstay of Nepal’s agriculture. These crops are greatly affected by weather variability including drought. The impacts, though expected to become higher in the mountains compared to low lying Tarai region, are detrimental to both regions and ultimately to agricultural production, food security and the people's economy. Moreover, agriculture sector performance depends mainly on conducive weather conditions, and the agrarian poor community suffers most from any adverse situation brought about by climate change (MoE, 2010a).

 Impacts of climate change on agriculture

Agriculture is the mainstay of rural food and economy that accounts for about 96% of the total water use in the country ‐ suffers a lot from erratic weather patterns such as heat stress, longer dry seasons and uncertain rainfall, since 64% of the cultivated area fully depends on monsoon rainfall (CBS 2006). Declined yield due to unfavorable weather and climate will lead to vulnerability in the form of food insecurity, hunger and shorter life expectancies (Ebi et al. 2007), and the rural poor will again be the hardest hit. Floods carrying rocks, sediments and debris increase the intensity of landslides and erosion; deteriorate soil and water quality; wash away houses and properties; cause human injuries and deaths; destroy infrastructure such as schools, roads, and markets (Chaudhary and Aryal, 2009).

In Nepal, losses have occurred in agricultural sector due to climatic events (Tables 1 and 2) in the past four decades

Table 1: Loss of agricultural land as a result of climate-related extreme events in Nepal (1971-2007)

Events	Loss (in hectares)
Drought	329332 (38.85%)
Flood	196977 (23.25%)
Hailstorm	117518 (13.86%)
Rains	54895   (6.47%)
Strong wind	23239   (2.74%)
Cold waves	21794   (2.57%)
Others (forest epidemic, snow storm, fire, storm, etc.)	83336   (9.83%)
Total	847648

Source: IFAD (2013)

The highest loss of land was from drought (38.85%) followed by flood (23.25%), hailstorm (13.86%), rains (6.47%), strong winds (2.74%) and cold waves (2.57%). It is likely that a variety of climate-induced threats will extend the impacts in new areas. Rapid population growth, shrinking farm size in the Tarai Region and continued unplanned agriculture in hazard-prone areas are expected to add to the damage and losses if no counter measures are put in place timely. The cropping intensity in climate vulnerable areas is increasing because of demand for food.

Table 2: Affected crop area from climate-related extreme events in Nepal (In hectare)

Crops	Year
	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Paddy	115000	6967	116506	3585	120000	88800	30873	92000
Maize	4 435	954	1293	20	47	4271	549	1700
Millet	-	-	500	419	-	1451	3	-
Others	2067	611	-	-	-	-	324	-
Total	121502	8532	118299	4024	120047	94522	31749	93700

Source: IFAD (2013)

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) also assessed impacts of climate change on global cereal production and concluded that negative impact of climate change on world cereal production may vary from 0.6% to 0.9%, but that in South Asia, the impact could be as high as 18.2% to 22.1% (von Braun, 2007). Within South Asia, impacts are more pronounced in mountain areas than in the plains. It means, impacts of the climate change are high in Nepal. On contrary, some experiments have shown opposite results, increasing crop yield particularly rice and wheat with increase in climate variables (Malla, 2008). However, the findings of this study show the net negative effect (MoSTE, 2014b).

Decline in rainfall from November to April has adversely affected the winter and spring crops. Impacts of climate change on agriculture are in major multidimensional and intricately vicious as 'agriculture' is a function of several biotic and abiotic factors. Climate change will likely affect various components in a location-specific system of agriculture through its impacts in biophysical and socio-economic factors with ultimate negative effects on farm productivity. Positive impacts of climate change are also predicted on crop and animal production (Gautam and Pokhrel, 2010).

The perceived impacts on agriculture were decreased crop yield, reduced soil moisture, and increased incidence of new pests and invasive plant species. Such impacts were fairly heterogeneous in distribution. The Salyantar village of Dhadhing, a raised flat-land of river deposition already stuck in the grip of water stress, was found exacerbated by the effect of climate change (Paudyal et al. 2015).

The major impacts speculated in crop husbandry are declining availability of water for agricultural uses, hindrance in operation of conventional irrigation systems and decreasing water use efficiency, increasingly degrading agricultural land, increasing depletion of land from agricultural uses, diseases and pest epidemics and increasing crop management risks. Those associated with poor availability of quality planting materials and technologies, catering changing context needs, are foreseen to affect crop production and economic sustenance of farmers adversely (MoE, 2010b).

Many studies have attempted to estimate impacts of climate change on agriculture mostly by combining crop growth models with economic models. The climate change has potential impacts on costs of production, farm revenues, farm value, employment, income, consumption, and finally on the GDP. Though several studies have been done on the effects of climate change on crop production mostly using crop simulation models based on different scenarios of GHG emissions, temperature rise and risks of extreme events, but the studies on the costs to the farmers are very limited. Effect of climate change on crop productivity is particularly sensitive because of its strong linkage with food security.

An economic Assessment of Climate Change in Key Sectors has estimated direct cost of current climate variability and extreme events equivalent to 1.5 to 2 % of current GDP/year (approximately USD 270-360 million/year in 2013 prices) and much higher in extreme years (MoSTE, 2014a).

Projection has shown that the net decrease in rice production will be 51 thousand metric tons in 2020; 216 thousand metric tons in 2050 and 412 thousand metric tons in 2080. The decrease in 2020 is 1.6% of the present production, that in 2050 is 6.7% of the present production and in 2080 12.9% of the present production. Likewise, with the mixed effects of temperature and precipitation, the wheat production in the main wheat growing areas is projected to decrease by 176 thousand tons in 2020, a small increase of 64 thousand metric tons in 2050 and a decrease of 111 thousand metric tons in 2080. The projected changes in production is equivalent to a 15.5% decrease in 2020, 5.6% increase in 2050 and 9.7% decrease in 2080 in terms of present level of production. Everything else remaining the same, the national loss in food production is expected to be 5.3% in 2020, 3.5% in 2050 and 12.1% in 2080. The loss of food grain thus accounts to 435 thousand metric tons in 2020, 302 thousand metric tons in 2050 and 1040 thousand metric tons in 2080 (MoSTE, 2014).

CO₂ concentration causes partial closure of stomata, which reduces water loss by transpiration and thus improves water-use efficiency (Rotter and van de Geijn, 1999). Other things remaining equal, this leads to improved crop yield, even in conditions of mild water stress. The effect is much larger for C3 plants (rice, wheat, tomato), but there is also a small effect for C4 plants like maize, sorghum, sugarcane. Effects on yield, biomass and photosynthesis have been demonstrated in many studies using growth chambers, and a recent review by Long et al. (2006) indicates that yield increases for several C3 crops may be of the order of 20–30% at elevated CO₂ concentrations of 550 ppm. Tubiello et al. (2007) vigorously defend the data from enclosure experiments (and the crop model developments that were built on their foundation).

They also suggest that lower crop responses to elevated CO₂ of the magnitudes in question would not significantly alter projections of global food supply (Tubiello et al., 2007), although the effects at more local scales may be more important in the context of food security. The AR4 gives figures of 10–25% yield increases under unstressed conditions for C3 crops, and 0–10% increases for C4 crops, at 550 ppm atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.

The climate change affects the food security adversely at all four levels—global, national, household and individual. It is realized that among the climate parameters, the rise in minimum temperature reduces yield of rainy season crops affecting national self-sufficiency of food grains. The climate change affects the entire food system from production, processing, distribution, consumption and utilization. Food security in Nepal is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to low level of human control over the water and temperature and fragile ecosystems that get easily affected from the climate change and related extreme weather events (Pant, 2012).

Impacts of climate change on livestock

Global warming has remarkable effects on the phenology of plants and the breeding behavior of animals that are highly sensitive to photoperiod and heat. Several studies have confirmed the change in breeding habits (e.g. courtship calling, birthing, mating, bird singing) in animals and insects, and in the blooming and flowering time of plants, from a few days to as early as a month before historical precedents (Hersteinsson and MacDonald 1992, Grabherr et al. 1994, Parmesan 1996, Groom et al. 2006).

The declining forage production in natural pasture due to poor emergence of grasses, pastoral degradation and invasive species, increasing prevalence of animal parasites and vector-borne and parasitic diseases, heat stresses especially in pig, eroding breeds of sheep and pig, transhumance system loss, changes in animal reproductive behavior especially in terms of heat-period and fertility, shortage of feed ingredient and increased production/emission of GHGs due to animal health reasons have been major impacts and concerns of climate change in animal husbandry. It has also been foreseen the outbreak of feed toxicity, nutritional diseases and poor health in farm animals resulting in higher mortality rate, increasing production costs and low productivity as consequences of the impacts there by affecting animal herders' livelihood (MoSTE, 2014a).

 There is a growing concern on the effects of the climate change on livestock production. Dixon et al. (2003) noted that there are likely to be smaller impacts on livestock yields per se, compared with grassland biomass, because of the ability of livestock to adjust consumption in response to the changes. There is still another type of reporting that the net revenues from livestock for small farmers will be up by 25 %, and that for large farmers goes down by 22 % (Seo and Mendelsohn, 2006). This is due to increased market price to all the farmers and increased costs of production to the large farmers. On contrary, several studies (SCA, 1990) show that the climate change adversely affects livestock and poultry production.

Livestock production is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity (Kabubo-Mariara, 2009). Rising temperature increases lignification of plant tissues and reduces the digestibility (Minson, 1990), reducing meat and milk production in range-based livestock production system. Increased heat stress is another pathway affecting the livestock production. The increased heat alters heat exchange between animal and environment affecting the feed intake and metabolism (SCA, 1990. Such stresses will affect growth and productivity of the animals. But, effects vary from species to species. For example, water buffaloes need frequent bath for heat exchange. Drying of ponds due to drought can deprive the buffaloes for taking baths affecting adversely the productivity of the buffaloes. Similarly, the increased energy deficits may decrease cow fertility, fitness, and longevity (King et al., 2006). Increased temperature and humidity will increase the risks of mortality and morbidity among the livestock and poultry. Amundson et al. (2005) also reported a decline in conception rates of cattle (Bos taurus) for temperatures above 23.4°C. But, it is also suggested that impacts of heat stress may be relatively minor for the more intensive livestock production systems where some control can be exercised over the exposure of animals to climate change (Rotter and van de Geijn, 1999). It means that the loss in the livestock production depends on the degree of control of the shed. As the developed countries can control the livestock production conditions minimizing the losses from the climate change, the global price for the livestock products may not increase much due to the climate change. Thus, Nepalese livestock farmers who cannot control the production conditions of the livestock are bound to suffer from the both, reduced production and inadequate rise of the price.

Climate change also increases mortality and morbidity of animals particularly from the climate sensitive infectious diseases (Patz et al., 2005-). Increases in zoonotic diseases among the animals also increase the risks of transmission of such diseases in the human being. In summary, as a result of the climate change, Nepalese farmers have to bear loss from the livestock production (Pant, 2011).

Climate change impacts will include: reduction in the productivity of rain-fed crops used for livestock and poultry feed; reduction in productivity of forage crops; reduced water availability and more widespread water shortages; and changing severity and distribution of important human, livestock and crop diseases. Major changes can, thus, be anticipated in livestock systems, related to livestock species mixes, crops grown and feed resources and feeding strategies (Thornton et al. 2009). Such changes increase the costs of livestock production. The climate change is feared to have impacts on feed crops and grazing systems, for example, greater incidences of droughts can decrease fodder production and rise in temperate can change the species-mix in the pasture (Hopkins and Del Prado, 2007). Increase in the temperature changes the rangeland species distribution, composition, patterns and biome distribution (Hanson et al., 1993) increasing the need for feed supplements. With the climate change, the cost of water for the livestock farming will increase. The livestock need water daily and frequently and also for animal feed production. But, the literatures on the added water costs for livestock production are not readily available. The climate changes also increase the costs of veterinary medicines in livestock and poultry production. Though the impacts of the climate change on animal diseases and their vectors depend on the ecosystems and their changes, nature of the pathogen and the susceptibility of the livestock (Patz et al., 2005-), the cost of the treatment is likely to rise. The effects of climate change on the health of livestock and poultry are reported by many studies (Harvell et al., 1999, 2002; Baylis and Githeko, 2006). Increased temperature and relative humidity also increases the risks on aflatoxin development in feed stuffs increasing the risks of poisoning among the animals (Pant, 2011). Thus, the climate change will increase the costs of livestock and poultry production and the subsistence farmers are always losers. However, the loss in the gross revenues from the livestock is expected to be smaller than those from the crops.

Impacts on quantity and quality of feeds

Climate change can be expected to have several impacts on feed crops and grazing systems, including the following (Hopkins and Del Prado, 2007):

Changes in herbage growth brought about by changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and temperature; changes in the composition of pastures, such as changes in the ratio of grasses to legumes; changes in herbage quality, with changing concentrations of water-soluble carbohydrates and N at given dry matter (DM) yields; greater incidences of drought, which may offset any DM yield increases and; Greater intensity of rainfall, which may increase N leaching in certain systems.

Nepalese livestock farmers who cannot control the production conditions of the livestock are bound to suffer from the reduced production and inadequate rise of the price. Climate change also increases mortality and morbidity of animals particularly from the climate sensitive infectious diseases.  Increases in zoonotic diseases among the animals also increase the risks of transmission of such diseases in the human being.

The high hill animal herders, however, shared that climate change has declined fodder and forage production instead it has aggravated the prevalence of parasites on animals. Discontinuation of local cattle breed from the western mountain is an evidence.

Conclusion

The impacts of climate change on agriculture and livestock are very complex compared to other sectors. As agriculture is the main stay of the Nepal's economy which as adversely impacted due of climate change. It has negative impacts on crop and livestock production and productivity, pest and disease infestation, land degradation, soil fertility, animal fertility and behavior, quality and quantity of food, feeds and fodder, biodiversity, gene pool and others. It resulted in increased cost of production, price of food, and also added cost for irrigation facility, managing pest and diseases, etc. Agro-ecological extension of some crops due to temperature rise and increased number of warmer days, prevalence of livestock diseases and parasites and declines in fodder and forage productions in high mountains. The decreasing crop available soil moisture, crop failures and reduced crop productivity in middle mountains and Tarai, and climate-induced disasters rendering agricultural land uncultivable have become typical to Tarai (MoE, 2010b). Hence, the climate change affects the food security and livelihoods adversely at national, household and individual level. It will adversely affect farm revenue, employment, income and finally on GDP. However, it should not be ignored in any development effort due to its association with livelihoods of grassroots, social stability and well tracked development of other sectors. This paper will capitalize the impacts of climate change on the agriculture and livestock for adaptation planning for policy makers, development workers, climate change practitioners, researchers, and academia to response of the climate change.

Acknowledgement

We would like to express our sincere appreciation to the Ministry of Population and Environment (MoPE), and UK Aid, ACT, OPM and Practical Action for providing the opportunity for this study in NAP formulation process. We also thank to MoALMC, departments, FAO, CCA project and NAP team for their sincere help and cooperation.

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[1] Goal 2 of SDG focused "End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture" by 2030.

[2] Emphasized to accelerate agricultural sector growth through four strategic components viz. governance, productivity, profitable commercialization, and competitiveness by 2030.